Monthly Archives: November 2012

Wrong is Not Right

Sea levels are rising faster than predicted by climate models, Arctic ice is melting more rapidly, glaciers are retreating more quickly, and a number of other one-dimensional measures have significantly larger first derivatives than climate models predict. In other words: … Continue reading

Posted in politics, science | 8 Comments

Love, Money and the Double Coincidence of Wants

Toy-model economic discussions tend to critique the barter economy as dysfunctional due to the problem of the “double coincidence of wants”. In a barter economy, so the story goes, if Bob has a widget and wants a cow he must … Continue reading

Posted in economics, life, psychology, sailing | 10 Comments

Things That Are Not Arguments

This story of a group of Australian geologists who “undiscovered” an island in the Coral Sea clearly proves all of the following: Anti-science conservatism is true: Obviously if science can get an entire island wrong it must be the case … Continue reading

Posted in bayes, epistemology, politics, probability, psychology, science | Comments Off on Things That Are Not Arguments

Some Notes on Adultery

There are certain universal features in human societies, which reflect the underlying biology of human beings. One of the most prominent ones, shared by every human society everywhere at all times, is that there are rules about who can have … Continue reading

Posted in Blog, evolution, life | Comments Off on Some Notes on Adultery

Systematic vs Statistical Error

I’ve seen a few people ask about why the election odds at electionprojection.com, 538, et al all fell in favour of the side with a significantly greater than 50% chance of winning. After all, if you predicted 10 senate races … Continue reading

Posted in bayes, epistemology, prediction, probability | 1 Comment

Bayes\’ Theorem for the Perplexed

We live in the Age of Bayes, although many people aren’t up to speed on that yet. Bayesian methods are slowly percolating their way out of the physical sciences and into the wider world, and will slowly displace everything else. … Continue reading

Posted in bayes, epistemology, probability | Comments Off on Bayes\’ Theorem for the Perplexed