Monthly Archives: November 2012

Wrong is Not Right

Posted on 2012-11-28 by TJ

Sea levels are rising faster than predicted by climate models, Arctic ice is melting more rapidly, glaciers are retreating more quickly, and a number of other one-dimensional measures have significantly larger first derivatives than climate models predict. In other words: … Continue reading →

Posted in politics, science | Leave a comment

Love, Money and the Double Coincidence of Wants

Posted on 2012-11-23 by TJ

Toy-model economic discussions tend to critique the barter economy as dysfunctional due to the problem of the “double coincidence of wants”. In a barter economy, so the story goes, if Bob has a widget and wants a cow he must … Continue reading →

Posted in economics, life, psychology, sailing | 2 Comments

Things That Are Not Arguments

Posted on 2012-11-22 by TJ

This story of a group of Australian geologists who “undiscovered” an island in the Coral Sea clearly proves all of the following: Anti-science conservatism is true: Obviously if science can get an entire island wrong it must be the case … Continue reading →

Posted in bayes, epistemology, politics, probability, psychology, science | Leave a comment

Some Notes on Adultery

Posted on 2012-11-18 by TJ

There are certain universal features in human societies, which reflect the underlying biology of human beings. One of the most prominent ones, shared by every human society everywhere at all times, is that there are rules about who can have … Continue reading →

Posted in Blog, evolution, life | Leave a comment

Systematic vs Statistical Error

Posted on 2012-11-11 by TJ

I’ve seen a few people ask about why the election odds at electionprojection.com, 538, et al all fell in favour of the side with a significantly greater than 50% chance of winning. After all, if you predicted 10 senate races … Continue reading →

Posted in bayes, epistemology, prediction, probability | Leave a comment

Bayes’ Theorem for the Perplexed

Posted on 2012-11-05 by TJ

We live in the Age of Bayes, although many people aren’t up to speed on that yet. Bayesian methods are slowly percolating their way out of the physical sciences and into the wider world, and will slowly displace everything else. … Continue reading →

Posted in bayes, epistemology, probability | Leave a comment