Monthly Archives: December 2012

2013 Predictions

‘Tis the season for prediction, and who am I to buck the trend? There are three kinds of predictions I’m interested in: the global economy, the national political landscape, and my own life. Globally, we’ll continue to muddle through. Greece … Continue reading

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Plans for 2013

My plan for 2012 was to see my younger son off to university, to sell my house, to move across the country, and to buy a Gulf 32 pilothouse sloop. Mission accomplished. My plan for 2013 is… well, I’m still … Continue reading

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2012 In Review

So it was a pretty good year. Where to start? FRC team 2809 went to the world championship again, although my involvement was less significant this year. That was due in part to a consulting contract that involved developing a … Continue reading

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More on Seasonal Markets

Back in the spring I made some prognostications about the home price indices in the US that have turned out to be not so correct. I suggested that most of the “growth” in the Case-Shiller home price index was due … Continue reading

Posted in bayes, economics, prediction, probability | 6 Comments

Some Notes on Reviews

Carrie sometimes reminds me that my problems are other people’s dreams, but that doesn’t mean I don’t have problems. In the present instance, I’ve got the problem of figuring out what to read, and I find myself facing a problem … Continue reading

Posted in bayes, economics, life, marketing, psychology, review, writing | 12 Comments

Prop Walk

I’m learning about backing up sailboats, a topic I thought I knew a good deal about before I found myself backing up a full-keel sloop that appeared to have a mind of its own. I’ve sailed mostly lighter boats under … Continue reading

Posted in life, physics, sailing | 49 Comments

Light Winds

I’ve seen this question come up in the search terms a couple of times, “Can the Gulf 32 sail in light winds?” Short answer: yes. I’m still getting used to the boat, and have only had her out once–in light … Continue reading

Posted in physics, sailing | 8 Comments