‘Tis the season for prediction, and who am I to buck the trend?
There are three kinds of predictions I’m interested in: the global economy, the national political landscape, and my own life.
Globally, we’ll continue to muddle through. Greece will not exit the Euro-zone, although there will be talk of Spain, Italy, and Germany doing so, for different reasons. Uncertainty around the outcome of the German election and whether or not Chancellor Merkel will remain in power after it will be a significant driver of volatility in the stock market in the medium-term. In the short term, of course, it will be the ridiculous zoo that passes for government in the republic to our south that keeps investors on their toes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will continue to bump around between 11,000 and 14,000. It may touch its all-time high again, but won’t sustain that level.
Nationally, the Liberal Party will choose Marc Garneau as leader, after Liberals realize that once you get past his famous name, Justin Trudeau is not that substantial a politician. M Garneau will begin the process of rebuilding the party and positioning it to reclaim Opposition status in 2015.
Stephen Harper’s Reform/Conservative party will continue to accumulate scandals to the point where they can no longer be simply brushed off. It will be revealed that the RCMP have at least one significant investigation open around political corruption, probably related to the F-35 mess. The deficit for calendar 2013 will be over $25 billion dollars. The Reform/Conservatives will claim this figure is “on track”.
In my personal life, I’ll continue to explore all the options and opportunities that life on the West Coast offers.