Why Isn’t the Germ Theory of Disease Mentioned in Scripture?

My text for the day will be the Gospel According to Lister, in which he recounts the revelation God gave to His beloved prophet, Pasteur:

And in those days there was a great sickness in the land, and the people were sore afflicted, and God came down and spoke to his prophet out of a puddle of brackish water, saying, “I am the Lord thy God and I tell thee straight, this disease and many others like it are caused by tiny animals, too small for the eye to see and having diverse and marvelous shapes–spherical and rod-like and tentacled like the beasts of the sea–which dwell in foul waters like this the one I am speaking to you from, and which can even spread through the air like dust in the wind, and grow on feces and the dead matter of animals and meat that has been left too long in the sun, and this is why salt preserves such meat, for it makes it difficult for such animals to grow.

Not all disease is so caused, but much of it, and any pestilence that spreads like this plague that currently afflicts you is certainly caused by such tiny creatures, for the plague spreads as the creatures do, from sick person to sick person, by air and water. Even a person who does not yet appear to be sick can be a carrier of disease, so in times of plague cover everyone’s face with a veil that they boil every few days in water, and let all my people wash their hands several times a day with strong soap.

Take care to preserve the cleanliness of your water supplies by keeping dead animals and feces out of it, and dispose of your night soil far from your dwellings and keep your preparers of food clean, and the places they work, and all of this will greatly reduce the effects of sickness amongst you.

Think long on this truth, O My Prophet, and see what other clever ideas you can come up with to turn this knowledge I have revealed to you to good purpose. And spread my truth far and wide amongst men, that no one may ever forget this simple fact: much disease is caused by tiny animals, too small for the eye to see, although there are many other such animals that cause no harm.”

There is no concept in there that could not have been understood by an educated, or even uneducated, man of the bronze age.

So why doesn’t this simple fact–that much disease is caused by tiny animals, too small for the eye to see, that dwell in water and wet matter and can even be blown through the air like dust on the wind–mentioned anywhere in any scripture ever?

If God so loved the world that he did all this crazy stuff to manage our fall and redemption you’d think He might have mentioned something that was easily understood but hard to discover, and would have saved untold millions of lives?

There is obviously nothing preventing Him from doing so, because Scripture tells us God is all-powerful, and nothing–not even logic–can prevent an all-powerful being from doing anything. That is, I take “all-powerful” to mean “capable of instantiating a contradiction”, which doesn’t make sense, but we are told quite clearly that God “passes all understanding”, so “not making sense” is hardly an objection any devout believer would raise, if they are honest and consistent. Since nothing–absolutely nothing–can prevent an all-powerful God from telling us about disease while at the same time experiencing everything we need to experience then there is no reason for Got not to tell us, unless either a) He can’t be bothered or b) He doesn’t exist.

Let me emphasize: sometimes believers say that “God has to let evil exist because of free will” or “God must permit human suffering so we can redeem ourselves” and similar nonsense. Such people do not believe in an all-powerful God. They believe in a technologically superior space-alien who has taken a sadistic interest in human affairs.

An all-powerful being is not subject to necessity. That is, as soon as you say God “must” or “has to” or “necessarily” does anything, you are saying God is subject to a higher power, because only a higher power is capable of placing limits and constraints on something that make it necessary to use certain means to bring about particular ends.

An all-powerful God could stand the sun still in the sky, or knock down the walls of a city, or have a child born of a virgin even though every one of those requires contradictions to basic fact as extreme as the existence of free will without evil. An all-powerful God can make contradictions real. Incomprehensibly, granted, but that is what all-powerful means.

So my question stands: why isn’t the Germ Theory of Disease mentioned in Scripture?

The answer cannot be any statement of the form, “God could not mention it because…” unless you deny that God is all-powerful. An all-powerful God could do anything, even if it involves making a contradiction real.

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Blur

Science is the discipline of publicly testing ideas by systematic observation and controlled experiment.

There is a lot of stuff entailed by that claim: the whole of actual scientific practice, in fact. The specific sciences and subdisciplines all have their own special techniques, but they have some things in common, as well, and a big one is the rejection of “blur”, which is the tendency we have to ignore inconvenient details.

If you talk to any pseudo-scientist, anti-scientist, creationist, anti-vax-ivist, creationist, ID-iot or conspiracy theorist, you’ll find they have a strong tendency to focus obsessively on one or two small details, and blur away the rest. They talk about the “power of prayer” by focusing on one person’s cancer remission, but ignore the millions who died every year of easily preventable disease in times and places far more religiously scrupulous than our own. They talk about dragon skeletons as proof that humans and dinosaurs walked the Earth together in recent times, but blur away the anatomical reality that the bones, where identifiable, are a carefully constructed collection of different species.

And strangely–for people who claim to be able to see what no one else can–they believe that is impossible for anyone to see anything they don’t. So when they have blurred away a fact, anyone who can see it becomes, in their eyes, delusional.

I once had the misfortune of arguing with a person who claimed (I kid you not) that gravity was a repulsive force. His “evidence” for this was a) the second law of thermodynamics (always a go-to sound-bite for anti-science nuts) and b) that the orbit of the Moon is slowly receding from the Earth. His use of the second law amounted to the claim that “things fall apart” and therefore there must be a “principle of repulsion” at work that is more fundamental than anything else, or dead bodies wouldn’t decay (to give his specific example.)

His claim that the moon’s orbit is receding is true, but it is fully explained by tidal forces and Newtonian dynamics, so his claim turned out not to be a critique of General Relativity (which is what he claimed) but an outright dismissal of Newtonian physics, which is even more insane. But he simply blurred away any counter-argument as consisting of “irrelevant details”.

Those of us who practice the discipline of science know how dangerous the “irrelevant detail” is, and it is this fact that makes science more of an art than a science.

Some details really are irrelevant, and a large part of experimental and observational technique is figuring out which aren’t. How that’s done is a matter of, well, the discipline of testing ideas by systematic observation and controlled experiment. If you see something odd in the details, you make a note of it and keep an eye out for the possibility of it being relevant. If you’re bothered by it you figure out a way to test–by observation or experiment–if it could be relevant. And you hope that you haven’t missed anything, or you wind up publishing problematic results, like FTL neutrinos and cold fusion.

“Details matter until proven otherwise” is a pretty good mantra, but those in the grip of the blur reject it, and there doesn’t seem to be any way to bring them back into focus.

Attention is the most limited of human resources. We are famously able to keep just five or ten things in mind at once, and people who habitually blur seem to have a much lower number, perhaps three or four. They therefore cling to the few things they can see, and refuse to take their minds off them lest everything be lost in the blur. That’s pure speculation on my part, but I can think of a couple of obvious ways to test it.

I don’t know the cure for the blur, but I think it’s important that we be aware of it when talking to anti-scientists. If we can keep in mind that they really aren’t capable of seeing the details that we are seeing, and perhaps can only hold a few ideas or facts in the heads at once, we might be more effective at explaining to them why and how their dearly held ideas are untenable.

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Marine Maintenance

The Gulf 32 has Universal 32 HP diesel, model 40 (which is also model 5432). It is mounted immediately below the aft companionway and accessible by raising the floor-boards, if by “accessible” one means “can been seen.”

There are two situations where being ambidextrous is really useful, and marine engine maintenance is one of them. I score a 1 on the Edinburgh scale of handedness, where 0 is perfectly ambidextrous and 10 is perfectly handed, and I’ve never been so glad of it as when working on this engine, which is spectacularly perverse (and not in a good way) even by the usual standards of awkward marine design.

The Universal 32 has the oil filter and fuel filter on the right hand side, so when you’re facing the stern they are on the left, which for right-handed people must make them a serious pain to deal with. Pretty much everything I’m going to describe here with regard to the engine was done with my left hand.

Draining the oil is done by pumping it out through the dip-stick hole, which is about the only thing on the right side, down low under a coolant hose to make it maximally awkward to get to. The 5432 isn’t actually a model number, because it does not uniquely specify the model of the engine. There are at least two variants: ones with a cast oil-pan and ones with a stamped oil-pan. The one on the Gulf 32 (at least on “Gulf Winds”) is cast. The important difference is that the cast version uses just 8 litres of oil (I think the spec is 8.5 quarts, and 8 litre = 8.5 quarts). The stamped version uses something like 11.5 quarts, so it’s quite a big difference.

I used a “Sea Dog” electric oil pump from Canadian Tire. The wires and tubes it came with are too short, so I extended the wires by about 2 m (six feet). There is no place to put the pump down, and it vibrates enough when running to not stay put in any case. Getting the inlet tube down the dipstick hole was easy, but the bottom of the oil pan was hard to find. There wasn’t a definite “stop”, as I think the tube tended to curl up as it hit the bottom. But with care you should be able to feel it. I found holding the tube right where it feeds into the block was best.

When running, the pump vibrates and the outlet tube shakes like a drunk after two days sober, spattering oil all over the place if it gets away from you and jumps out of the container you’re draining things into. Don’t ask me how I know this.

Draining the oil took ten or fifteen minutes. Then came getting the oil filter off.

As I mentioned, the oil filter is at the stern and on your left as you face the engine. It’s also down below some cables and hoses. But that isn’t the best part. The best part is that it’s impossible to get a modern strap wrench on because there is a flange running along the block adjacent to it that has less than 1 mm clearance, as shown in the picture below:

How not to design for ease of maintenance

How not to design for ease of maintenance

Ubiquitous cell phone cameras must be the bane of marine designers, as they make it so easy to see and show others design choices like this one. Even given that after a few years you get pretty good at figuring out what you’re “seeing” with your fingers, it’s nice to be able to validate that with an actual image.

There are strap wrenches with steel bands, or there use to be back in the ’70′s, but most of them today have rubber straps that are too thick to fit into such a small gap. Therefore getting the oil filter off the Gulf 32 has to be done the old fashion way, by pounding a screwdriver through the sheet metal and using that as a lever. The thing will spill oil all over the place when it comes off, so I cut down a plastic juice container as a catcher underneath, which worked pretty well.

The good people at FRAM, bless them, are now selling replacement filters that have a rough coating on the top end, which may make the next change a lot easier, as it will be possible to grip it and twist, if you’re a) left handed or ambidextrous and b) your hands are unusually large and strong.

The new filter went on easily in the usual way, and the previous owner had included a nice wide-spout funnel as part of the boat’s equipment that made the refill very easy. I used MotoMaster 30 weight heavy duty oil, and after a fill, run and top-up it took about 8 litres, as expected. It’s always nice when as much goes in as you took out.

The fuel filter was much easier to get off, but getting the bleed screw out was painful. Again working left handed, it was just possible to get a socket on it with a universal joint attachment. The normal ~2″ extender was too long (it hit the header thoughtfully placed above) and without an extender the wrench couldn’t be turned. Once loosened it was possible to get the bolt out with my fingers, and running the electric fuel pump for quite a long time eventually refilled the system. Don’t forget to open the bleed screw on the injector pump (I did.)

After the fuel system was primed I ran the engine for 15 minutes or so, and it all worked, so that was good.

Changing the transmission oil was much easier. The 3/4 bolt on the right side when facing the stern is actually the top of the dipstick. The capacity for the HBW150 is 560 ml, and I found that about 60 ml stayed behind after pump-out, so 500 ml new Type A ATF should work just fine. I actually over-filled it and had to pump a bit back out. As ever, “HBW150″ is not actually a model number: there is an “A” and a “V” version. My boat has the “A” version, but the “V” takes 1.05 liters of fluid.

I found the following items really useful:

Some useful bits and pieces

Some useful bits and pieces

The gloves weren’t so valuable, as most of the stuff was done bare-handed. Number of tools dropped in the bilge: 0. So I count that as a win. But the narrow funnel for filling the transmission, the wide funnel for filling the engine and the cut-down juice container for catching stray oil were all valuable, as was the measuring cup.

It takes time to get to know a new engine, and I’m writing this in the hope that it’ll be useful to other sailors who don’t want to pay someone else to do maintenance for them, but who may not be familiar with the Universal 32, which are pretty common on boats of a certain age.

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Risk and the Price of Books

I’m reading Alan Schom’s utterly brilliant biography of Napoleon at the moment, and noticed the price tag: about thirty bucks.

Considering what I pay for other forms of entertainment, this is astonishingly low. I’ve already got dozens of hours out of it, and expect to get a few more before I’m done. It’s a big thick book, compulsively readable, detailed enough to be comprehensible to a layperson but for the most part avoids the lengthy lists of minutia that so often bog down even the better popular biographies of historical figures.

Schom’s fundamental point–that Napoleon was a sociopathic person whose incessant warmongering destablized Europe for generations to come and caused enormous human misery and death for no readily discernible purpose–is more the sufficiently documented by such things as Napoleon’s consistent refusal to take any significant action to support his army’s medical corps, despite strongly worded and detailed pleas on the part of senior medical staff that he do so. We don’t need to know every detail of the man’s sad sociopathic day to understand that.

So here I am, getting entertained and informed for something less than a dollar an hour. Apart from Netflix, and DVD rentals from Classic Video in Kingston Ontario, there are very few comparable deals. I can easily pay $50 or more for a play that lasts a couple of hours, $12 for a two or three hour movie, and well north of $100 for the privilege of watching a rock star hop around the stage more than 50 metres from where I’m sitting.

I would have happily paid three or four times the cover price and still felt myself well-served by this book. And yet if it had been priced that way, I wouldn’t have bought it, because I wouldn’t have known what a good deal I was getting.

Even if I’d read the author’s previous books, I wouldn’t know if this one was as good (or better). There’s no way to judge how a person will respond to a given entertainment until after the fact, particularly because these things are dependent on time and circumstance. A book that might rock my world this year could leave me flat next.

So there is a risk discount on the price of entertainment. If we could actually know ahead of time how good something was, we’d pay more. If we could be somehow coerced to pay a higher price after we really enjoyed something, we’d pay more. So far as anyone knows, there isn’t any way to do either of those, so we end up where we are: with creators taking a lower price on good works because of the number of less-good ones out there.

I’ve written before about the poor state of reviews and critical commentary. One exception to this is the board-game community, where a relatively small number of very dedicated players have produced an exceptional critical literature. Books need the equivalent of Board Game Geek, and we simply don’t have it. The thing that makes the reviews there impressive is the degree of self-awareness the reviewers bring to the topic. There is a lot of comprehensible detail on why the reviewer does/doesn’t like a given game. Book reviews are overwhelmingly shallow in comparison, possibly because books are so much more complex than games. Or possibly because we are just doing it wrong.

Until we’ve figured out how to do a better job of predicting how a given person at a given time will respond to a given book–which is quite different from judging “quality”–authors will continue to take a hit on price, and readers will pay for works that they ultimately find unsatisfying, along with a few real gems tossed into the mix at far lower prices than they should reasonably command.

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Insomnia

What is this thing you speak of, sleep?
A closing of the eyes?
A slowing of my breath and heart?
My mind in soft surmise?

I think I’ve heard of it before,
a myth from yonder times,
a thing to do from dusk to dawn,
paying daylight’s fines.

But recently it’s been a state
more noted by its lack
although I’ll see if I can yet
persuade it too come back!

I actually sleep pretty well most of the time, although I suffered from terrible insomnia in my youth. But today I’ve had a long and fruitful day that involved a lot of hard thinking about diverse topics–PIC18 programming and rework on my novel and some mechanical things on my boat–and between them all my brain seems to have picked up sufficient momentum that it’s taking a good deal longer than usual to slow down.

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Robust Relationships

Robustness is the property of being able to deal with unexpected situations without things falling apart.

The opposite of robustness is fragility. Fragile things have to be handled with extreme care.

In my algorithm development business I pay a lot of attention to robustness. Robust algorithms are ones that degrade gracefully as inputs wander far from their usual ranges. They generally don’t perform quite as well in the ideal case as fragile algorithms, but unless you have some pretty good input filtering to ensure that they only see things that are close to ideal, you’re better off with the robust version.

If a relationship is fragile you’ll find yourself spending more time worrying about how to manage the other person’s feelings than honestly expressing your own. While there can be a certain kind of satisfaction in doing that successfully, it isn’t kind of satisfaction a healthy relationship provides.

Rather than being a matter of mutual support, fragile relationships become a drain on one or sometimes both parties, as they try to keep their situation from falling out of the acceptable range, the range they can cope with. When you’re doing more work to keep your relationship within tolerance than you are simply enjoying it, you’re doing it wrong. It isn’t sustainable.

This is not to say that a robust relationship isn’t work. There’s a difference between robustness and inertia. An inert relationship isn’t much work, but it isn’t much fun, either. It just clunks along in a muddy rut, more trouble to end than to go on with. The romantic equivalent of heat death.

Nor does it mean that robust relationships don’t change with time. They do, sometimes dramatically. But regardless of how they change, the core of attachment remains. So does a healthy tolerance for each other’s sub-optimal aspects, and an appreciation that even with the best will in the world we all screw up sometimes. Acceptance and understanding are as much a part of a robust relationship as love and mutual support.

I’ve been fortunate in my life to have a number of extremely robust relationships and friendships, and silly enough, as a young man, to have gone through a few extremely fragile ones. Learning to identify fragility early on is an important life skill, and it applies to things like employment as well as relationships and friendships: is this employment situation robust enough that it can cope with a reasonable range of the ups and downs of life and the economy?

Robustness is a property of the relationship, not the individuals who are in it. Abusive relationships can be “robust” but only because one partner is able to put up with all the crap the other partner gives them. That’s not the kind of robustness I’m talking about, but rather when two people enhance each other’s lives in ways that come without planning or expectation or apparent effort (as well as the usual planned and deliberate ways), and when things go wrong the immediate response is not for one partner to blame the other for not living up to expectations.

Blame is one of the better diagnostics for a fragile relationship. When one person says to the other: “You screwed up and I do not forgive you for it.” Other than a broken individual getting punitive satisfaction, there’s not a lot about this response to relationship problems that is functional. Getting over screw-ups is part of the “core business” of a robust relationship. They still need to be pointed out, and if they become chronic then the relationship may be doomed regardless: there are many kinds of relationship failure beyond fragility.

But blame and anger should be rare, and should be recognized for what they are: legitimate emotional responses that need to be felt, but which should never be simply acted on.

Emotions are facts, and it is illogical to ignore facts, but they are facts about the person feeling them, not about the person who evoked those feelings. Making that distinction, and ensuring that the facts that you act on are the relevant ones, is an important aspect of making a relationship robust.

But mostly, it’s a matter of being a bit picky about the people you have in your life. We form robust relationships with the right people, and over time I’ve come to value that more and more. When everything else came apart in my life ten or twelve years ago, a few robust relationships and friendships carried me through. Today those relationships still exist, and still make my life better than it would be otherwise, and I’ve been fortunate to find a few more in the meantime.

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Rain

Hard rain against the window, hollow sounds
of glass reverberating in the storm;
fat drops of cold hard rain, wind blowing down
against the brittle barricades forlorn
while crows in murders glide down through the grey
and shapeless fog that wreaths the urban towers,
black leafless trees of January sway
above pedestrians, umbrella cowers
along the street, a limpet overhead
that shields its owner from the bitter rain.
I listen to the words the thunder said
in bold reply unto the wind’s refrain.
Beyond these castle walls the rain falls cold
but here there’s warmth and love within the fold.

Not one of my better poems, but I’ve not been writing much lately and that’s my excuse. January is the the middle of the rainy season in Vancouver, which starts sometime around October and runs through to April or May (or June). This has been a relatively dry year, with November in particular amazingly rain-free.

But living on the Wet Coast, a certain amount of rain poetry is bound to occur, and there will no-doubt be more of it as time goes on. I’m in the fortunate position of not being bothered much by the rain, although I prefer the more common continuous light drizzle to the current conditions of much harder rainfall with gaps in between.

I almost took the poem in quite a different direction, riffing off the reference to T. S. Elliot’s “The Waste Land” in the last quatrain, but that pointed in a direction that didn’t really reflect my feelings.

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How Not to be a Science Writer

The state of science reporting has always been pretty dismal, with a few major luminaries outshining the combined light of their lesser colleagues. I suspect that the science desk is the place where novices and interns get parked until they can finagle their way into “real” reporting, and they recognize that since their audience is for the most part even less informed about the subject they cover than they are, they are free to do a really bad job of it.

There are three or four major tricks that “science” writers and editors play to garner page views:

1) Silently swap a conventional definition with a generalized one: take a well-known concept, like electrical resistance or temperature, that has a numerical value that is strictly constrained to a particular domain, like positive values. Cover a researcher who is using a generalized version of that concept that permits values outside that domain: phase velocities greater than the speed of light, resistances or temperatures lower than zero. Report, preferably in the headline, “Researchers Achieve <<VALUE OUTSIDE DOMAIN>>” and (this is the important part) no where mention that you are strictly reporting on the generalized version of the concept. This will ensure your article conveys no useful information, that you will confuse your lay readership, and you will look like a complete pillock to those of us who understand what you’re doing.

In the case of a recent low in “science” reporting, a junior staff writer for Nature has produced an article of surpassing incompetence, which describes the achievement of negative (generalized) temperature in an ultra-cold gas. The trick is to replace the usual ratio-based definition of temperature (the average energy per degree of freedom) with the more general and more abstract differential-based definition used in statistical mechanics, which equates T with dE/dS, where S is the Boltzmann entropy. For systems where the available states are bounded from above, you can get into a situation where adding more energy squeezes the particles into fewer available states, which causes the generalized differentially defined temperature to be negative while still having a perfectly positive ordinary value of the average energy per degree of freedom.

By equivocating on which definition of temperature you are talking about, you too can be a complete failure as a science communicator, reporter, and human being.

2) Use an excessively general concept that covers vastly different things. We see this in reporting about dark matter, which is a vague catch-all concept that physicists and cosmologists use in a highly context-dependent way and “science” reporters use as if it always referred to exactly the same thing. There are two basic dark matter problems, and possibly more. The first is “galactic dark matter”, which has absolutely nothing to do with more cosmologically-relevant “non-baryonic dark matter”. “Galactic dark matter” is surmised to account for the rotation curves of spiral galaxies, which are far flatter than the amount of matter implied by their luminosity. That is, the amount of luminous matter drops of steeply as you move into the outer reaches of galactic arms, but the total amount of matter does not. Galactic dark matter is almost certainly made of perfectly ordinary protons and neutrons, just like us.

“Non-baryonic dark matter”, however, is stuff that is not like us. On very large scales, the universe does not have enough matter to account for the observed rate of expansion. We know the universe’s density in baryons from Big Bang models, and there simply aren’t enough protons and neutrons out there to account for how slowly the universe is expanding. There needs to be a lot more something to have slowed the expansion down, and we don’t know what that something is. Again, this is completely unrelated to galactic dark matter, and if you confuse the two you will confuse your readership, and look ignorant and sad to those of us who know what’s going on.

3) Adopt the most obfuscatory language possible. This, admittedly, is a sin the scientists have committed as well, although often at the behest of their editors, like Leon Lederman’s in “The God Particle”. The most egregious instance of this is “quantum teleportation”, which probably set back the public understanding of quantum information theory by a solid decade, as scientists simply lied and said nonsensical things like a “the universe is the same if we teleport the quantum state of an electron to the moon or if we send an electron with that state to the moon”. Since obviously the electron number of the moon differs by one in these two cases you’d think it would be fairly obvious that this is gibberish, but “science” reports slavishly repeated similar nonsense for over ten years. Fortunately this particular instance of egregiously misleading language has been corrected so many times now that it has ceased to do much new damage.

4) Talk about “breakthroughs”. There are almost no breakthroughs. Science and technology are almost always incremental enterprises, slowly accumulating better and better techniques and understandings. The “New Sensationalist” is full of examples of “science” reporting of this kind. Check any back issue from five years ago and calculate how many “breakthroughs” have resulted in significant change five years later.

5) Report on people and controversy rather than science and results. Scientists are people and sometimes we get into fights with each other. It can be amusing to watch, but if you’re reporting on it, you’re doing a human interest story, not a science story.

6) Wildly exaggerate the extent or importance of an effect, so that something that explains 7% of the variance is reported as “the cause”. This is done most commonly in sociology and medicine, leading to an endless stream of false and misleading stories that claim “Gene X Causes Cancer Y” (in 2% of the cases, but we won’t mention that) and “Situation P Results in Outcome Q” (although no causal analysis has been done and it only explains 10% of the variance at most.) The latter results in claims like “whiny kids grow up to be conservatives” and the like, because there is a few percent increase in the odds a person will have been uptight and rule-bound as a child if they are a conservative as a result. Of course, about half of such kids also grow up to be liberals, because about half of everyone grows up to be liberal.

This kind of story is simply innumerate pandering to people’s most simplistic prejudices, and attempts to create the illusion of mechanical causation where none exists.

That’s it off the top of my head. I hardly ever read “science” reporting these days, and when I do it’s purely so I can write a clearer explanation of the actual results here or in Facebook. I’m pretty sure “science” reporting has always been this way, and maybe all other kinds of reporting as well, but it’s a pity there are never more than one or two decent science reporters out there, given the impact that science has on all our lives.

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2013 Predictions

‘Tis the season for prediction, and who am I to buck the trend?

There are three kinds of predictions I’m interested in: the global economy, the national political landscape, and my own life.

Globally, we’ll continue to muddle through. Greece will not exit the Euro-zone, although there will be talk of Spain, Italy, and Germany doing so, for different reasons. Uncertainty around the outcome of the German election and whether or not Chancellor Merkel will remain in power after it will be a significant driver of volatility in the stock market in the medium-term. In the short term, of course, it will be the ridiculous zoo that passes for government in the republic to our south that keeps investors on their toes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average will continue to bump around between 11,000 and 14,000. It may touch its all-time high again, but won’t sustain that level.

Nationally, the Liberal Party will choose Marc Garneau as leader, after Liberals realize that once you get past his famous name, Justin Trudeau is not that substantial a politician. M Garneau will begin the process of rebuilding the party and positioning it to reclaim Opposition status in 2015.

Stephen Harper’s Reform/Conservative party will continue to accumulate scandals to the point where they can no longer be simply brushed off. It will be revealed that the RCMP have at least one significant investigation open around political corruption, probably related to the F-35 mess. The deficit for calendar 2013 will be over $25 billion dollars. The Reform/Conservatives will claim this figure is “on track”.

In my personal life, I’ll continue to explore all the options and opportunities that life on the West Coast offers.

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Plans for 2013

My plan for 2012 was to see my younger son off to university, to sell my house, to move across the country, and to buy a Gulf 32 pilothouse sloop. Mission accomplished.

My plan for 2013 is… well, I’m still working on that, so this is more ruminations than plans.

Lots of sailing is a high priority. No point in having a boat if you’re not out in it. Day-sailing in the winter, weekend trips to nearby marine parks in the spring, and two or three longer trips north in the summer, is the plan. For what I’m paying in moorage and maintenance I need to spend about 300 hours on board to make it comparable in price per hour to my old community club membership at KYC. That’s actually perfectly doable, especially counting time spent on maintenance, which is part of the fun. I’m with the Water Rat in the belief that “nothing, absolutely nothing, is half so much fun as simply mucking about in boats.”

Another priority is getting the final draft of my first novel done and doing the indie-publishing thing with it, followed by promoting the hell out of it. Ergo: learning more marketing. I’ve done a lot of reading on the topic, but the proof of the pudding is in the practice.

I’ve got a couple of electronics projects on the go, mostly boat-related, no surprise. One of them might have commercial potential. We’ll see.

I’m not likely to do a lot of consulting unless the wind is really blowing in the right direction. My day-job continues to be sufficiently interesting and engaging and whatnot to keep me attached to it. I might actually be in the process of “settling down”, which is not exactly expected. As I mentioned previously I’ve been with the same company for over three years and the same woman for nearly seven. I used to say “I’m not happy being content”, but I’m kinda feeling I could get used to this.

Ten years ago I was still jumping from disaster to disaster in my personal life and career, barely keeping ahead of Fate’s machine-gun fire. At that time, people I cared about had been dying at a rate of about one per year for the past three or four years. My previous employer–a startup company–had failed the year before, and the one I was currently with was failing. In the days before New Years in 2002 I was busy working out which half of my team to let go, having been called to a private meeting with the CEO just after Christmas to be told just how dire the financial situation was. I’d been separated for a little more than a year. That phase of my life lasted about five years, and in 2002 I would have another year or two before I really got ahead of the game, so it’s been eight or nine years since my life has basically been on the up-swing. That reality has started to penetrate even my thick skull.

Anyone who has been through a phase of their life like that likely has two reactions: to always be looking over their shoulder, just a little, to keep an eye out for disasters to come; and to appreciate the good times in a deep and profound way. I know this phase of my life could end at any time. Disaster could strike out of the clear blue sky (or, it being winter in Vancouver, out of the dark cloudy sky.) But that’s not going to stop me from enjoying the hell out of life in 2013. We only go around once, and I intend to make the most of it.

Apart from sailing and prose there is poetry and French, neither of which got the attention the deserved this year. We’ll see if I do better on them in the year to come. I’d love to put together a book based on the work Hilary and I have done together in the past few years. We have a great deal of really good material, and while it may not be the most commercially exciting thing ever, it would be beautiful, and creating things that are beautiful and good is what life should be about.

Further to that end, engaging in “some work of noble note” is still on my agenda. I live in one of the richest cities in the world that is full of some of the poorest people in Canada. I don’t have a magic bullet for that, and neither does anyone else. We know a lot about what doesn’t work (what the Vancouver Anti-Poverty Committee and Downtown Eastside Residents Association did) but not so much about what does. Thinking and learning about that is on my agenda for 2013, although I’m not expecting to discover anything hugely important. In the meantime, there are organizations doing good work that I can support as a stop-gap measure.

Compared to 2012, these plans don’t amount to much. But one has to go with the ebb as well as the flow. Taking the time for the dust to settle, to get a better view of life’s new landscape after major changes, is necessary to see far enough into the future to have a reasonable chance of making plans that will actually come to fruition, and satisfy your desires.

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