Monthly Archives: May 2011

Canada\’s Near Future

I’ve just finished Philip E. Tetlock’s “Expert Political Judgment”, in which he shows that humans are not very good at predicting the future, and people who know “one big thing” (hedgehogs, in his terminology, taken from an essay by Issiah … Continue reading

Posted in economics, epistemology, politics, prediction, probability | 22 Comments

A Bayesian Looks at the Rapture

Predictions of improbable events have been much in the news of late, which looks like a good reason to talk about the role of probability in reasoning. Humans, like other animals, walk around with beliefs about the world, and one … Continue reading

Posted in epistemology, history, life, politics, probability, religion | 25 Comments


Did I say I limp along like some old drunk with staggers? Then listen to my sober song that stabs like angry daggers: ‘Tis not enough to stand up straight and tell the truth to fools who look with empty, … Continue reading

Posted in epistemology, poem | 27 Comments